The Mauldin Economics part of my life keeps me buried in economic research and financial news. —Will Thomson and Chip Russell, Massif Capital. Thoughts From The Frontline. An old joke says economists predicted 15 of the last 10 recessions. Growth blossoms if everyone just follows their own incentives and nothing gets in the way. My own analysis, looking at the data available on April 4, says recession isn’t likely this year but unfortunately looks very probable in 2020. John Mauldin I am a financial writer, publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author. Sign up now. We're caught in a trap There is simply too much to cover in one letter, and today we’ll start with the most important factor, a known unknown, that I think will be the driver for 2021. This week is the fourth in a series of five open letters responding to a series of essays by Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates. We can meet by phone, video, and now in virtual reality. I certainly am. In the film version of Tolkien’s Lord of the Rings: Return of the King, there’s a three-minute scene you should watch or re-watch. Simply discussing COVID-19 will undoubtedly make this letter controversial and, in some circles, political. That’s where we get the phrase “out of left field.” (If the ball were coming from right field, the runner could actually see it.). From his warning of an impending recession in 2000, to a polemic on the Obamacare “death spiral” in 2016, John has blazed his own trail as one of the most respected macroeconomic minds in the field. Creating perceptions is often enough to modify people’s behavior. We always want more of it. Historically suboptimal growth? ... John Mauldin and/or the staffs may or may not have investments in any funds cited above as well as economic interest. It’s here and a grand council of esteemed economists has confirmed it. If you would like to quote brief portions only, … My analogy was that the COVID-19 vaccine has us in the Gripping Hand. Paycheck-producing jobs are actually a recent development. We’ve reached the Thanksgiving weekend, and as always, I’m thankful for loyal readers like you. Politicians love saying small businesses are important to the economy. In baseball, there is a situation where a base runner is sprinting to home plate and can’t see what is happening behind him. I began last week (you can read it here) discussing a three-handed alien race envisioned by science fiction writers Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven. I find their expertise is not nearly as reliable as they seem to think. We finished the Virtual Strategic Investment Conference yesterday. I’m often asked if recession is coming, and for quite different reasons. The human brain excels at taking shortcuts. Recession is coming. I’m on the phone with John almost every day, trading information as we produce Thoughts from the Frontline and Over My Shoulder . I truly believe that something affecting all of us so deeply should be kept in the scientific realm to the extent possible, not the political. The first day of school was the day after Labor Day. Meanwhile, 50% of adults under 38 told the Harris Poll last year that they would “prefer living in a socialist country.”, The welfare of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of [GDP].”. John Mauldin Co-Founder, Mauldin Economics As one of the most recognized names in the financial world, John Mauldin regularly speaks at investment conferences and seminars around the globe, including the MoneyShow, Agora Financial Investment Symposium, and the CFA Institute Annual Conference. In other words, it creates devastating Black Swans. Thoughts from the Frontline. They infer it from the surroundings, which say that the mathematics of the universe as we understand them change at the event horizon. 3 talking about this. Thoughts From The Frontline - Investment Strategies, Analysis & Intelligence for Seasoned Investors. I knew this letter’s topic months ago. Last week, I described the enormous challenges retirees face. Officials at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere long ago learned how to achieve their goals without actually doing anything. . John Mauldin's Thoughts from the Frontline Experience the legend—join one of the most widely read macroeconomic newsletters in the world. Delivered weekly on Saturdays. Thoughts from the Frontline Follow John Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines. I hasten to add, it isn’t what I think the future should look like or what I want to see. We will muddle through. The private event at Leen’s Lodge is generally called Camp Kotok in honor of David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors who started these outings many years ago. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting www.MauldinEconomics.com. I wrote here and here that he was kinda, sorta wrong in Why and How Capitalism Needs to Be Reformed, Parts 1 and 2 but really, really wrong in It’s Time to Look More Carefully at ‘Monetary Policy 3 (MP3)’ and ‘Modern Monetary Theory,’ in which he basically endorsed MMT. Regular readers may have noticed me slowly losing confidence in the economy. Every borrower eventually either repays what they owe, or defaults. Like many people nowadays, I have two jobs. We can debate the timing, but the economy will turn decisively downward at some point. For the last 3+ years, I have maintained it would take an “exogenous” event to send the United States into recession. One difficulty in analyzing our economic future is the sheer number of potential crises. How do they know that? One reason for that, aside from insufficient savings, is that markets haven’t delivered the returns many experts said we could plan on. So, the financial... We just spent the better part of a decade wondering when the next recession would strike. In last week’s letter, Ed Easterling and I showed you why it is a longshot bet in almost every market environment. Much of the economy was closed down, we didn’t know how bad the virus would get, and it was hard to see a good outcome. I have a special treat for you. 2021 is the year of the Gripping Hand, and COVID-19 is what’s gripping us. I’m filing this letter on the day I turn 70 which, among other things, means I start receiving Social Security benefits this month. This month, the Federal Reserve joined its global peers by turning decisively dovish. Thoughts from the Frontline is an economic/investment newsletter. John Mauldin’s popular macroeconomic musings, read by millions around the world, provide you with a perceptive and personal big-picture view of the economy and financial sector. Or, more precisely, we haven’t seen a lot of good news lately, though it does exist. Facing mortality has always done that, of course. Experience the legend—join one of the most widely read macroeconomic newsletters in the world. But as we all know, these are very special and difficult times. Life would be so much easier if we didn’t have to worry about our financial futures. Sometime in March I will begin a series called “Angst in America,” in which we’ll deal with the economic underpinnings of why we live in such contentious times. ... Mauldin Economics, Millennium Wave Investments "If you're not reading John Mauldin, you should be." "If you're not reading John Mauldin, you should be." “A similar effect is taking place in economic life. Last week I talked about the polls misleading us. Regular readers know I often criticize so-called “experts,” usually economists or central bankers whose flawed decisions are punishing the rest of us. Growing income and wealth inequality were on my (and probably your) radar screen long before COVID-19 came along. The viral fog is starting to thin. I am blessed to have some of the world’s greatest. it's a depression when you lose yours.". This in-depth weekly dispatch helps you understand what's happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence. John Mauldin, … This in-depth weekly dispatch helps you understand what's happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence. Get serious. Follow John Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines. It frustrates every socialist revolutionary who imagines that by seizing the so-called means of production he can capture the crucial capital of an economy. PO Box 192495, … The world has thrown a wicked biological changeup at the global economy. When investors, financial professionals, and discerning citizens need a big-picture view of what's going on in the economy, they turn to John Mauldin. We don’t see it because both regular media and social media usually focus on the bad. I focus on larger macro themes. ... John Mauldin serves as Chief Economist and Co-Portfolio Manager of the CMG Mauldin Smart Core Strategy. I write this letter early Friday morning after a week in New York visiting with many fellow market participants. Financial institutions have been merging into a smaller number of very large banks. I often say a writer is nothing without readers. Or maybe it is ending but it could start again tomorrow. It is relevant to our situation today. About John Mauldin Editor, Thoughts from the Frontline Each week, well over a million readers turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. Offering Financial & Economic Analysis, Research. Knowing internet connectivity would be scarce here, I asked good friend Larry Kotlikoff to be your guest writer this week. It drew laughs on March 15, 2009, shortly after the Federal Reserve fired its heaviest artillery and, we now know, launched the longest bull market in history. CNBC and others began calling it the “Shadow Fed” but it is really just a meeting of wickedly smart people focused on economics and markets. In baseball, there is a kind of pitch called the “changeup,” designed to look like a fastball while actually going slower. The facts have changed so my conclusions are changing, too. Matching the stock market’s long-term average returns sounds like it should be easy, if you’re patient enough. Modern technology was supposed to make travel less necessary. Thoughts from the Frontline. If living dangerously is your goal, just keep adding reasonable, manageable, prudent risks. Business On The Frontline. John Mauldin's FREE in-depth, weekly dispatch, Thoughts from the Frontline, helps you understand what's happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence. … A steady rate of monetary growth at a moderate level can provide a framework under which a country can have little inflation and much growth.”, —Milton Friedman, The Counter-Revolution in Monetary Theory (1970). “Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. "History repeats itself, that's one of the things that's wrong with history.”, —Clarence Darrow (1857-1938), American lawyer. I’m at Camp Kotok, the annual economics/fishing retreat in Maine. Ignoring problems rarely solves them. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), Great Reset Update: $50 Trillion Debt Coming, On the Question of Current and Future Lockdowns, The Second Great Depression… But Not Really. Get this free newsletter in your inbox every Saturday! Jerome Powell and friends haven’t just stopped tightening. Governments and businesses are thinking about the next stage. If you’re a Baby Boomer like me, you also grew up knowing school was about to start again. The fact that so many Americans (especially young Americans) support Bernie Sanders ought to tell us something. This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually slaves of some defunct economist.” Coronavirus Is Not an Emergency. And for good reason. Actually printing money as an economic policy? I, for one, didn’t see a high probability of a Biden presidency combined with a Republican Senate. Because I love you too much baby. Almost all banks are now interrelated. Soon, we’ll be able to turn the page. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history. Now we face a new decade and new challenges. Those who experienced the 1930s as adults are mostly gone now, but they left notes. Share This: ... Our economic prospects looked bleak back in March and April. Follow John Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines. Market” teach you how to read the markets and discover what’s really driving them. I can honestly say it was simply the best conference I have ever attended or been privileged to host. The actions by the Federal Reserve have widened the gap. Thoughts from the Frontline is an economic/investment newsletter. We haven’t had a lot of good news lately. Others are worried about their employment or their kids. ... publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author. Dallas, Texas 75219, Toll-free: (877) 631-6311 Should you wear a mask in public? Thoughts from the Frontline is a free weekly economic e-letter by best-selling author and renowned financial expert, John Mauldin. ... John … Local: (602) 626-3100. Good news: The trade war is over. Those who lived through the last financial crisis might may recall the Green Shoots episode. I’m labeled both a doomsayer and a Pollyanna—sometimes in reaction to the same letter. This in-depth weekly dispatch helps you understand what's happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence. Nothing is forever, not even debt. No, it’s getting worse. Mauldin Economics is a publishing company with the mission to attain today’s most pressing investment goals: to increase investment earnings, produce capital gains, or maintain wealth in tempestuous markets. I began last week (you can read it here) discussing a three-handed alien race envisioned by science fiction writers Jerry Pournelle and Larry Niven. This week’s letter is the first part of my 2021 forecast. We have never lived before under the threat of a global collapse. The Mauldin Economics part of my life keeps me buried in economic research and financial news. Russian military forces threaten Ukraine. You can learn more and get your free subscription by visiting www.MauldinEconomics.com. Follow John Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines. Making a forecast without the virus at its center is pointless. Any full reproduction of Thoughts from the Frontline is prohibited without express written permission. The millions of little companies with a handful of workers are, collectively, more important than the few hundred large enterprises we see in the news. Lenders may or may not have remedies. Now With Over 23,000 Reviews! Indeed, the world is ruled by little else. Adam Smith’s Invisible Hand of now tens of millions of businesses, small and large and giant, working to produce and deliver inventions, technologies and cures that help us all.... As I work on my book about the future, I think a lot about the ways possible events will affect our money. Like I wrote last week, we will see financial repression, ever increasing deficits, slower growth, etc. Previous bubbles have combined accommodative monetary conditions with economic conditions that are perceived at the time, rightly or wrongly, as near perfect, which perfection is extrapolated into the indefinite future. —John Maynard Keynes, Publisher’s Note: John Mauldin is recovering from a minor illness. A month ago, we didn’t know where all this was going but it was potentially serious. Let the master guide you through this new decade of living dangerously. Get this free newsletter in your inbox every Saturday! John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. We worry it won’t come or, worse, might turn into contraction. John Mauldin's Thoughts From The Frontline is a highly acclaimed blog that's primarily focused on private money management, financial services, and investments. John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. We can “Muddle Through” almost anything. The last two months we stopped wondering. John has dedicated more than 30 years to keeping people informed about financial risk. The machines can do marvelous things with those two digits but they have limits. The pandemic has made them both more obvious and more urgent. I will explain further at the end of this letter. Animals don’t. Sure, but sub-3% growth isn’t a recession. John writes the free weekly e-letters Outside the Box and Thoughts from the Frontline, which reach over 1 million readers each week. Follow John Mauldin as he uncovers the truth behind, and beyond, the financial headlines. But Since the Fed exists in the real world, and its decisions matter, we have to pay attention. I knew fairly early, when Florida and North Carolina looked so close, we weren’t going to see a “blue wave.” But beyond that, it was clear the presidency would not be settled that night. One of COVID-19’s many less-than-obvious consequences is the way it makes us look inward. I try to not let my politics intrude, except when politics affects our portfolios and the economy, which is actually rare. I write this introduction from an all-too-short vacation in Montana (more below). Predictions are difficult, especially those about the future. Dallas, Texas 75219, Toll-free: (877) 631-6311 Your feedback never fails to inspire and enlighten me. PO Box 192495, I spoke about globalization in Chapter 3; it is here, but it is not all for the good: it creates interlocking fragility, while reducing volatility and giving the appearance of stability. That meant entering a new grade with unknown challenges. John Mauldin's FREE in-depth, weekly dispatch, Thoughts from the Frontline, helps you understand what's happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence. The US, Europe, and most of the developed world on are the road to Japanification. Get this free newsletter in your inbox every Saturday! Almost the entire developed world has painted itself into a corner. Each week, nearly a million readers around the world receive my Thoughts From the Frontline This in-depth weekly dispatch helps you understand what's happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence. This is a short midweek note, something I haven’t done for years. John Mauldin is a multiple NYT Best Selling author and recognized financial expert. As I file this letter Friday morning, people are reacting to the July jobs report. I focus on larger macro themes. Totally focused on scoring, he doesn’t know if the outfielder is throwing a ball that will reach home plate first. One reason the economy is so fascinating is the way things just… happen. Soon they will begin actively easing by reinvesting the Fed’s maturing mortgage bonds into Treasury securities. Each week, well over a million readers turn to John Mauldin to better understand Wall Street, global markets, and the drivers of the world economy. Work has always been a fact of life. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. We didn’t do the mid-August thing back then. This makes it hard to chart a personal and business path forward. Experience the legend—join one of the most widely read macroeconomic newsletters in the world. Meanwhile, with trade disputes still roiling markets, below is a still-timely letter he wrote last year. I write this introduction from an all-too-short vacation in Montana (more below). This seemingly simple question immediately generates emotional, political, and social anxiety. Unprecedented events are happening so fast, I barely know where to start. This week I have asked my longtime associate Patrick Watson to step in and write Thoughts from the Frontline, offering his perspective as a small business owner. Get this … Today I continue my response. By John Mauldin September 18, 2020 When Cornwallis surrendered to George Washington at Yorktown in 1781, tradition has it that the British band played an old English children’s folk tune, “The World Turned Upside Down.” If buttercups buzz’d after the bee, If boats were on land, churches on sea, If ponies rode men and if[...]Read More > . The newsletter began as John’s way of sharing his thoughts with a few associates. And for good reason. Editor, Thoughts from the Frontline. As we jump in today, let’s start with a little game: On a piece of paper, or at least in a part of your mind where you are habitually honest, write down what you think is the size of the government relative to the size of … John Mauldin I am a financial writer, publisher, and New York Times bestselling-author. Squirrels instinctively store away nuts and thus live through winter without much thought. (JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). This in-depth weekly dispatch helps you understand what's happening in the economy and navigate the markets with confidence. The general theme has been “On the Gripping Hand.” Science fiction writers imagined a three-handed alien race with a left hand, right hand, and a very strong Gripping Hand. Here in Puerto Rico we are now an hour ahead of Eastern Time, as we don’t do daylight savings time. (I am allowed to attend for comic relief.) You need to deal with them—not just the effects, but the underlying causes, or else they usually get worse. You can read the first two parts here and here. Each week, nearly a million readers around the world receive my Thoughts From the Frontline But one way or another, the debt goes away. Economics in Orbit The history of humanity, at least as taught in most schools, is really about two seemingly opposite forces: human innovation and human conflict. This highly acclaimed blog is primarily focused on private money management, financial services, and investments. My own reaction: The headline report is absurd. You can read the first two parts here and here. What will you do if your idea doesn’t work? West Texas Judge Roy Bean reportedly said, “Nothing focuses the mind like a good hanging.” For the vulnerable and those of us of a certain age (ahem), this virus goes beyond the normal daily risks. I hope you are enjoying some quality time with family and friends. 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